Is oil cheap right now?
Oil is deeply cyclical, and fairprice.fyi measures it against its own history: we divide the price of WTI crude (the U.S. benchmark) by its 200-week moving average and map the result onto a Very Cheap → Very Expensive scale. The live gauge above shows where WTI sits today.
What “cheap” and “expensive” mean for Oil (WTI)
Energy is boom-and-bust, so oil’s bands run wider on the downside. Below about 0.80× its 200-week average is Very Cheap; 0.80–1.00× is Cheap; 1.00–1.20× is Fair Value; 1.20–1.50× is Expensive; and above 1.50× is Very Expensive. Oil can overshoot hard in both directions, so the extremes matter more than the middle.
Oil (WTI) at past extremes
Oil has collapsed far below its 200-week average during demand shocks — most vividly in the 2020 crash — and run well above it when supply tightened, as in 2022. Crude spends much of its time swinging between those poles rather than resting near its trend, which is exactly why a reading at the edge of the scale is worth noticing.
Not financial advice.
Frequently asked
What does it mean for oil to be “cheap” here?
That WTI’s price is low relative to its own 200-week average. It is a valuation lens, not financial advice.
Which oil price does this use?
WTI crude (the CL=F futures contract), the main U.S. benchmark. Brent tracks it closely but can diverge at times.
Why are oil’s bands wider than gold’s?
Oil is far more cyclical, routinely overshooting far above and below its trend, so wider bands are needed to flag a genuine extreme.