Is Bitcoin cheap right now?
fairprice.fyi answers one question about Bitcoin: is it cheap or expensive relative to its own history? We take Bitcoin’s price and divide it by its 200-week moving average — a slow, roughly four-year trend line — and place the result on a Very Cheap → Very Expensive scale. The live gauge above shows where Bitcoin sits today.
What “cheap” and “expensive” mean for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s bands are deliberately wide because it is so volatile. At or below its 200-week average it reads Very Cheap; up to about 1.5× is Cheap; 1.5–2.5× is Fair Value; 2.5–4× is Expensive; and beyond 4× is Very Expensive. These are ratios to a long-term trend, not price targets.
Bitcoin at past extremes
Historically, Bitcoin has traded well below its 200-week average during its deepest bear markets and far above it near the peaks of its bull cycles. Because that trend line moves slowly and rarely falls, a price sitting far beneath it has tended to mark moments of maximum pessimism — while a price stretched far above it has coincided with euphoria. Neither guarantees what happens next.
Not financial advice.
Frequently asked
What does it mean for Bitcoin to be “cheap” here?
It means Bitcoin’s price is low relative to its own 200-week average — not that it is guaranteed to rise. It is a valuation lens, not a forecast.
Why the 200-week moving average?
It is a slow, roughly four-year trend that smooths out Bitcoin’s volatility, so a price far below or above it reflects a meaningful extreme rather than day-to-day noise.
How often does the verdict update?
The gauge fetches live weekly data each visit (briefly cached), so the verdict reflects the current price against the latest 200-week average.