fairprice.fyi

Is it cheap, fair, or expensive? At a glance.

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Crypto

Commodities

Methodology — how each zone is calculated

Every asset is scored against its 200-week moving average (200W MA): the average closing price over the last 200 weeks. The 200W MA smooths out short-term noise and gives a long-cycle baseline. The ratio of current price ÷ 200W MA determines the zone. Bands are tuned per asset class because crypto, metals, energy and agricultural commodities have very different volatility profiles.

Crypto (BTC, ETH, custom coins)

Adapted from the well-known "BTC 200W MA Heatmap" framework. Crypto cycle tops have historically printed at 3–5× the 200W MA, and bottoms below 1×.

Price ÷ 200W MA	Zone
< 1.0×	Very Cheap
1.0× – 1.5×	Cheap
1.5× – 2.5×	Fair Value
2.5× – 4.0×	Expensive
> 4.0×	Very Expensive

Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium)

Metals are middle-volatility — they trend up more steadily than crypto, so the bands are tighter. The gold-to-silver ratio (gold price ÷ silver price) is also shown on the silver card. Historical average is ~60. Above 80 implies silver is cheap relative to gold; below 50 implies silver is expensive relative to gold.

Price ÷ 200W MA	Zone
< 0.95×	Very Cheap
0.95× – 1.05×	Cheap
1.05× – 1.15×	Fair Value
1.15× – 1.30×	Expensive
> 1.30×	Very Expensive

Energy (Brent, WTI, Nat Gas, Gasoline, Heating Oil)

Energy is the most volatile of the commodity classes. Oil can swing 40–60% in a year, and natural gas has historically seen 2–3× moves. Bands are widened accordingly so the gauge isn't pinned to one extreme.

Price ÷ 200W MA	Zone
< 0.80×	Very Cheap
0.80× – 1.00×	Cheap
1.00× – 1.20×	Fair Value
1.20× – 1.50×	Expensive
> 1.50×	Very Expensive

Industrial & Soft Commodities, Grains

Copper, coffee, sugar, cocoa, cotton, wheat, corn, soybeans — medium-wide bands reflecting cyclical supply/demand and weather sensitivity.

Price ÷ 200W MA	Zone
< 0.85×	Very Cheap
0.85× – 1.00×	Cheap
1.00× – 1.15×	Fair Value
1.15× – 1.40×	Expensive
> 1.40×	Very Expensive

Data sources

Crypto prices & daily history: CryptoCompare public API (works worldwide, no geo restrictions, sends permissive CORS headers). Daily candles are resampled to weekly on page load to compute a true 200-week MA. CoinGecko is the fallback for symbols CryptoCompare doesn't track and for the "Add coin" search — its free tier caps history at 365 days, so a fallback-coin's metric will be labeled as e.g. "52-week MA" rather than 200-week. Commodities: Yahoo Finance /v8/finance/chart endpoint — five years of daily candles per asset, resampled to weekly client-side. Yahoo doesn't allow direct browser calls, so requests go through public CORS proxies (corsproxy.io, allorigins). Historical data is cached in your browser for 6 hours; click Reload to force-refresh.

Caveats

This is a single-factor model. Real markets care about fundamentals (supply schedules, geopolitics, weather, demand cycles) and regime changes (post-halving crypto, oil shocks, dollar strength). "Cheap" by 200W MA can stay cheap for years. Use this as one input, not the only input. Not financial advice.