Is coffee cheap right now?
Coffee is a weather-driven soft commodity, and fairprice.fyi measures it against its own history: we divide the price of Arabica coffee futures by its 200-week moving average and place the result on a Very Cheap → Very Expensive scale. The live gauge above shows where coffee sits today.
What “cheap” and “expensive” mean for Coffee
Coffee uses agricultural bands, a touch wider on the downside than metals. Below about 0.85× its 200-week average is Very Cheap; 0.85–1.00× is Cheap; 1.00–1.15× is Fair Value; 1.15–1.40× is Expensive; and above 1.40× is Very Expensive. A crop’s price can spike hard when a harvest fails, so its high extremes are worth watching.
Coffee at past extremes
Coffee has traded cheap against its 200-week average during well-supplied years, when good harvests leave the market in surplus — and spiked well above it after frost and drought damaged Brazil’s crop, as in 2021. Because supply shocks arrive suddenly and fade slowly, coffee can leap to the expensive end of the scale and linger there.
Not financial advice.
Frequently asked
What does it mean for coffee to be “cheap” here?
That the coffee price is low relative to its own 200-week average — a valuation lens, not financial advice.
Which coffee price does this use?
Arabica coffee futures (the KC=F contract), the global benchmark for high-grade coffee.
Why can coffee spike so far above its average?
Coffee supply hinges on weather in a few growing regions, so frost or drought can send prices sharply above trend before new harvests bring them back.